Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Tyler Cowen 100%Leader of 28 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJan 27, 25, 12:54 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Please add answers!
- The term AGI is ambiguous and subjective.
- I want to try to figure out timelines by when prominent people in AI subjectively think we have achieved it.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Each person resolves YES if by EOY 2030, they state publicly that they believe AGI has been achieved.
- This need not refer to any AI system they are working on themselves, but any AI system in the world.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Tyler Cowen at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? resolve?
- Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Please add answers!