Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 24, 10:39 AM UTCDec 31, 45, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SBF be released from prison before Donald Trump dies
Manifold MarketsWhich people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
Manifold MarketsImran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketSBF released from custody in 2026?
PolymarketMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketRules
AGI will be taken from other markets on manifold resolving
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $21K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-4.0pt17%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Total Vol
- $585.2K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.5pt70.3%
- Yes-5.5pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $410.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++3.0pt39.2%
- 20–40+3.0pt10.8%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil-1.0pt16%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+2.0pt15%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved resolve?
- Will SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2045.
- How is Will SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: AGI will be taken from other markets on manifold resolving