Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96.1%
Forecasters
54
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 30, 23, 6:37 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Usha Vance convert to Christianity before the election?
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Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Total Vol
- $65.6M
- 24h Vol
- $11.6K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $11.1K
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $137.2K
- 24h Vol
- $5
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $784
- 24h Vol
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Total Vol
- $3.6
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSGutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Yes55.3%
- No44.7%
- Total Vol
- $3.2K
- 24h Vol
- —
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years? resolve?
- Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.