![Will Aella convert to sexually conservative Christianity by the end of [year]?](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FHankyUSA%2Frj8afyi67k.jpg&w=128&q=80)
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
2026 1%Leader of 4 outcomes
2026 1%Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 51 minutes ago
LaggingJul 22, 24, 2:59 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
On December 30, 2023 Justin Murphy said, "we need a prediction market for Aella reverting to Christianity in the next 5 years." In response @Aella created the question @/Aella/will-i-aella-convert-to-christianit.
- I would like to collect the mana of YES holders sooner rather than later, so I created this question.
- I plan to resolve answers soon after the end of each year.
- If @Aella converts within a given year, then I will resolve that year and all following years to YES.
- For the purposes of this question (based on Justin Murphy's tweet and @Aella's question), it cannot be liberal Christianity, it has to be a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism.
- Tweet from Justin Murphy:
