Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79.2% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040? resolve?

Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.

How is Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if, in my judgement, that’s the reason for the award, even if those exact terms don’t appear in the official announcement.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt92.5%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$4.1M

24h Vol

$125.2K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-1.2pt59.1%
• Gemini-0.2pt30.2%
• ChatGPT+0.8pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+4.0pt34%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.3pt21%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.6pt17%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.4pt95%
• December 15,+1.5pt93%
• November 30,-0.5pt88%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+8.1pt98%
• Anthropic-6.4pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• <$1T-5.8pt24%
• $1.5T–$1.75T-0.2pt18%
• $1.25T–$1.5T-0.9pt17%

+5 more outcomes

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)
• Best AI in Oct 2026?