Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 7:17 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Haiku" tier during the month of October 2026 (between October 1, 2026, and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
- It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
- It must explicitly feature "Haiku" in its official name (e.g., Claude Haiku 5.5).
