Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOctober 89.8%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+21.9 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleFeb 6, 26, 1:03 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
times are in PT
- "released" = general public gets web ui or api access
- "haiku" = literally, a model referred to haiku, regardless of naming convention changes