Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?
One-OffScience13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 74.7%
Forecasters
83
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Mar 17, 23, 3:02 AM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill in-vitro gametogenesis be used to produce a functional embryo by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Genetic engineering has made significant advances in recent years, enabling the modification of existing organisms for various applications, such as agriculture, medicine, and environmental remediation.
- However, the creation of a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism with a distinct synthetic genome represents a major feat in the field of genetic engineering.
- This would involve the design and assembly of an organism's entire genome from scratch and the successful development of a complex, multicellular life form with the ability to grow, reproduce, and perform specific functions.
- The feasibility and timeframe for achieving this goal remain uncertain.
- Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism with a distinct synthetic genome be created before January 1st, 2040?
- Resolution criteria:
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040? resolve?
- Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Genetic engineering has made significant advances in recent years, enabling the modification of existing organisms for various applications, such as agriculture, medicine, and environmental remediation.