Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
QuarterlyAI6moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.1%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 8:03 AM UTCMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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tess (@xsphi) on Twitter asks:
- odds a ~frontier model has exfiltrated its weights and is currently running on hacked compute?
- https://x.com/i/status/2085216850464641413
- This seems like a straightforward enough question to run on Manifold.
- As background there have now been four notable incidents where frontier models went rogue during cybersecurity evals and hacked into unintended targets.
- Three of these incidents involved the sandboxing eval company Irregular failing to sandbox the model properly, however a fourth incident involving the UK AI Security Institute does not seem to involve Irregular.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? resolve?
- Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: tess (@xsphi) on Twitter asks: