Will 8,000+ clinical trials for innovative drugs be initiated globally in a single year before 2035?
Health & MedicineOne-Off8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 24, 26, 12:00 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the global number of clinical trials initiated for innovative drugs exceeded or equaled 8,000 in any single calendar year before January 1st 2035.
- Resolves NO if there is strong evidence that this threshold was not reached in any calendar year through 2034.
- The primary resolution criterion should be a credible, comparable global dataset or report measuring annual clinical trial starts for innovative drugs, ideally using the same or a substantially similar methodology to the data underlying the 2015–2025 series shown in the source chart.
- If multiple reputable sources disagree, priority should be given to the source with the broadest global coverage and the methodology most comparable to that series.
- A value of exactly 8,000 does count; the reported number must be equal or greater than 8,000.
- [image]https://x.com/DrSamuelBHume/status/2054971619748049044
