Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Demographics 29.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Demographics 29.7%Forecasters
50
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 19, 23, 2:44 AM UTCSep 26, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Does eating quickly increase diabetes risk?
Manifold MarketsWill Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ben & Jerry's Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough ice cream still be produced by 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill Good Humor sell Fat Frog ice cream again by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRules
See Nutrition Science's Most Preposterous Result, from The Atlantic, May 2023.
- Choi 2005 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/1152788
- Korat 2018 http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:37925665
- Nutr 2019 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821541/
- Resolves to my best guess five years after creating the market.
- If there are multiple causes, will resolve to my subjective weighting of factors.
