Who will live longer?
Health & MedicineManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMichelle Obama 74.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 24, 10:49 AM UTCDec 15, 80, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?
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Manifold MarketsWhich vaccines will the CDC no longer recommend in 2026?
KalshiMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.5K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No93.1%
- Yes6.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Total Vol
- $18.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-2.0pt97%
- Above 600061%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.1K
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
- On Nov 13, 202696%
- On Mar 13, 202789%
- On Nov 19, 202786%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18.8K
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- On Nov 16, 2026-3.0pt94%
- On Nov 22, 202769%
- On Dec 14, 2026-36.0pt32%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.1K
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will live longer??
- Manifold Markets prices Michelle Obama at 75% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Who will live longer? resolve?
- Who will live longer? is scheduled to resolve on December 15, 2080.