Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastErica Stanford 35.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 16, 26, 8:36 PM UTCMay 16, 36, 8:34 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Largest party in the next New Zealand general election?
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Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the next leader.
- Interim or acting doesn’t count.
Open markets
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+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the Next Leader of the National Party of New Zealand??
- Manifold Markets prices Erica Stanford at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the Next Leader of the National Party of New Zealand? resolve?
- Who will be the Next Leader of the National Party of New Zealand? is scheduled to resolve on May 16, 2036.
- How is Who will be the Next Leader of the National Party of New Zealand? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the next leader.