Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Other (97%)
Resolved: Sep 18, 2026, 12:43 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
OpenAI0.3%
Anthropic0.2%
Google0.2%
Meta0.3%
Mistral AI0.5%
xAI0.9%
DeepSeek0.3%
Z.AI0.4%
Moonshot AI0.3%
Microsoft0.6%
Other97%
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PolymarketRules
“Union Alpha,” an anonymous “stealth” model that appeared on OpenRouter on September 16, 2026.
- It’s a reasoning model positioned for research, coding, and agentic workflows, with a 262,144-token context window, a 131,072-token output cap, and text/image input — listed as stealth/union-alpha on OpenRouter.
- It is free during the preview window.
- The model claims Union Alpha can deliver frontier-level performance across a broad range of general-purpose tasks.
- Resolution criteria
- This is a binary (Yes/No) prediction market.