Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast[none of these happen in 2026] 72.2%+2.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 1:25 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?
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PolymarketBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketRules
[tweet]Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron??
- Manifold Markets prices [none of these happen in 2026] at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron? resolve?
- Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: [tweet]Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.