Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffChinaManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 30.6%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
35
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 23, 10:15 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve at the end of 2050 based on available data and verifiable sources when the following conditions are set for a country:
- A distinct region within the country must declare and gain its independence.
- At least one other sovereign nation must officially recognize the independence of this region.
- The declaration and recognition must occur before the end of 2050.
- Market for 2030: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d
- Market for 2100: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d-8684478bf61d