Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffChina4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 39.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 23, 10:14 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2100?
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Manifold MarketsWill Russia recognize the independence of Transnistria in 2026?
FutuurNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve at the end of 2030 based on available data and verifiable sources when the following conditions are set for a country:
- A distinct region within the country must declare and gain its independence.
- At least one other sovereign nation must officially recognize the independence of this region.
- The declaration and recognition must occur before the end of 2030.
- Market for 2050: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d-815607ddcd13
- Market for 2100: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d-8684478bf61d