Current community forecast
Before 2030 33.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 25, 1:26 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:22 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will I get my "BritCard" ID?
Manifold MarketsThe anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWill the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
The UK Government are preparing to launch a digital ID card, nicknamed BritCard, to combat illegal workers.
- This market resolves YES for every outstanding year if reliable reports come in of at least 1000 such ID cards being issued which are not part of a proof of concept trial.
- Otherwise each option will resolve NO on the 1st of January of the relevant year.
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.9pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.3pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $728.7K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $967.7K
- 24h Vol
- $113.3K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+1.5pt79.2%
- SPD-1.5pt20.8%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson76.7%
- Ulf Kristersson+1.0pt21.4%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will UK's "BritCard" ID first become available??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2030 at 33% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will UK's "BritCard" ID first become available? resolve?
- When will UK's "BritCard" ID first become available? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will UK's "BritCard" ID first become available? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The UK Government are preparing to launch a digital ID card, nicknamed BritCard, to combat illegal workers.