Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 72.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 8, 25, 7:05 AM UTCJan 31, 29, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves to the first tax year in which American citizens who are considered tax residents outside the United States (‘expats’) will owe no U.S. taxes on income earned overseas.
- Specifically, this means that in the given tax year:
- • Foreign labor income earned while physically outside the U.S. will be completely exempt from U.S. taxation.
- • Americans abroad may still be required to file tax returns, report income, or pay U.S. taxes on domestic-sourced activities (e.g., sales of U.S. property, domestic investments, U.S.-based business activities).
- • The exemption must apply broadly to American citizens who qualify as tax residents abroad, not merely specific exemptions such as the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (FEIE), Foreign Tax Credit, or treaty-based exceptions.
- • The exemption must be enacted into law or confirmed by official IRS guidance or regulation.