Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 18, 2026, 9:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Dec 20251%
Jan-Feb 20261.1%
Mar-Apr 20263%
May-Jun 20264%
Jul-Aug 202637.6%
Sep-Oct 202629.5%
Nov-Dec 202623.8%
Lost
Won
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
#### Resolution criteria
- TPUs will be considered "on InferenceMAX" when Google TPU backends are integrated into the InferenceMAX benchmark platform and results are publicly available on the live dashboard at https://inferencemax.ai/.
- Resolution will be confirmed by checking the InferenceMAX dashboard for active TPU benchmark data and results.
- InferenceMAX is an open-source continuous inference benchmark that runs nightly, continually re-benchmarking popular inference frameworks and models to track real performance in real time.
- The initial v1 release benchmarked NVIDIA and AMD GPUs, with plans to expand to include Google TPU and AWS Trainium backends over the following two months.
- The project aims to achieve over 99% coverage of deployed FLOPS globally by adding Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium.