When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
SpaceOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore Electron is officially retired 7.6%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 24, 2:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Resolves YES if an Electron rocket launches with a booster that Rocket Lab states has flown before (regardless of amount of refurbishment required)
- Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad under its own thrust
- The launch is not required to be successful
- Answers resolve NO as the dates are reached, and all remaining answers resolve YES once a launch that meets the criteria occurs; more answers may be added based on trading
- UTC is used for dates
- Please ask if you want anything clarified
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse?
- Manifold Markets prices Before Electron is officially retired at 8% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse resolve?
- When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if an Electron rocket launches with a booster that Rocket Lab states has flown before (regardless of amount of refurbishment required)