Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2050 60%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 25, 4:40 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 5:31 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- The appropriate date ranges in this market will resolve YES at the time that a change implementing this gets deployed on the site.
- I may bet YES in this market in order to incentivize myself to accomplish this, but I will not bet NO (beyond selling YES shares).
