Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2050 56.7%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 25, 5:22 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 6:06 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- A "PR" refers to a GitHub Pull Request, and it is the mechanism by which code changes to manifold are currently proposed.
- This market will resolve based on whether/when I submit an as-described change to Manifold, regardless of whether it's accepted or whether the exact mechanism is a GitHub PR.
