Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 71.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 25, 7:26 PM UTCAug 1, 29, 9:34 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to the first year when a freely available large language model achieves a gold medal-level performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad.
- The model must be available before day 1 of the IMO.
- I must be able to use the model without paying.
- For each year, directly after each day of the exam, I will pick the strongest LLMs and give them the problems independently.
- Each LLM has one attempt at each problem.
- I will then grade the problems.
