Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore January 1, 2027 36.8%+6.8ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.8 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 29, 26, 6:31 PM UTCSep 29, 27, 6:25 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the time period during which Anthropic officially announces or launches a developer-facing native decision API, "System One" model, or direct equivalent.
- To qualify, the API must be explicitly designed to return structured, typed decisions (such as calibrated probabilities, classification choices, or scores) rather than standard open-ended text completions, matching the paradigm established by TypeSafe’s Jev and OpenAI’s Decision API.
- Sources of Truth: Official announcements will be verified via the Anthropic News Blog or official Anthropic developer documentation.
- Resolution Dates: Resolution is based on the date of the public announcement of the API's availability (including private/public beta, developer preview, or general availability):
- the named outcome: Announced on or before December 31, 2026.
