Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastHas a microphone 99%Leader of 23 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 22, 25, 3:54 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:49 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?
KalshiWhat kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀
Manifold MarketsWhat is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.
- What will be true of the first device they release? This refers to whatever the first hardware product OpenAI + io release.
- If they release multiple devices simultaneously, each answer resolves YES if the answer is true of any of the devices.
- Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Designed to be worn on head' answer:
- Earbuds will be considered as 'worn on head'.
- Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date will be extended until the device is released or confirmed as cancelled.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $78.5K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.6%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.3K
- 24h Vol
- $25.3K
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4K
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device??
- Manifold Markets prices Has a microphone at 99% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? resolve?
- What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.