Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIt will be released by January 2027 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+24.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 6:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:10 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRules
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+13.0pt82.2%
- Yes-13.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $17.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt54%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-24.0pt49%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-21.0pt48%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-1.5pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- John Fetterman+12.5pt41%
- Jacky Rosen38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt36%
+12 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-12.0pt45%
- Above 55-21.0pt43%
- Above 60-11.0pt38%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Which Senators will vote for Clarity Act cloture?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Manifold Markets prices It will be released by January 2027 at 100% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? resolve?
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".