Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastIt will be released by January 2027 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 6:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:10 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.