Current community forecast
Yes 60.9%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Dec 22, 24, 7:04 PM UTCJun 30, 38, 6:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Will a paper come out (published or accepted/interesting/believed widely) which is a major advancement in P=NP, and has been created by AI/etc/agents or significantly advanced by them, by end of June 30 2037
- Paper must either be available, or totally confirmed to be valid (e.g. Terence Tao clearly states it's legit, or similar) and on the way to publication.
- It doesn't have to be a paper, some future thing which has a similar effect is okay (effect = changing behavior, beliefs, statements about, or elite evaluations of the truthfullness of related statements; if in the future such things are done by other methods, we do our best to understand that.
- Lack of human intelligibility isn't a blocker as long as we have reason to believe it's true.
- Update 2024-22-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A paper that refutes P=NP would count as a valid resolution
- Any result that significantly changes our view of the P=NP problem would qualify
