Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.6%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Dec 22, 24, 6:14 AM UTCJul 1, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Will a paper come out (published or accepted/interesting/believed widely) which is a major advancement in P=NP, and has been created by AI/etc/agents or significantly advanced by them, by end of June 30 2028
- Paper must either be available, or totally confirmed to be valid (e.g. Terence Tao clearly states it's legit, or similar) and on the way to publication.
- It doesn't have to be a paper, some future thing which has a similar effect is okay (effect = changing behavior, beliefs, statements about, or elite evaluations of the truthfullness of related statements; if in the future such things are done by other methods, we do our best to understand that.
- Lack of human intelligibility isn't a blocker as long as we have reason to believe it's true.
- Update 2024-23-12 (PST): - Market will resolve positively for any major advancement in understanding P=NP, including proofs that P≠NP (AI summary of creator comment)