Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJD Vance (@jd-vance-1.bsky.social) 76.7%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleDec 31, 25, 8:53 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
KalshiRules
Resolution criterion
- This market will resolve to the Bluesky account that is blocked by more Bluesky users than any other Bluesky account at the close date.
- Resolution source
- The resolution of this market will be informed by the data available on clearsky.app.
- Should the resolution source become inactive, it may be substituted with another credible source.
- This market is set to close at 07:00:00 UTC on 1 January 2027.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices JD Vance (@jd-vance-1.bsky.social) at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026 resolve?
- Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criterion