Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92.1%
Forecasters
90
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Apr 26, 26, 5:47 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs
- Savescumming does not count
- The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state.
- The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run
- The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime