Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

AIOne-OffTech9mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 58.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 15 hours ago

Stale

Jul 31, 26, 1:09 PM UTCJul 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.

Resolve to NO if this does not happen.
[Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.]
To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way.
Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue.
No strategic assistance.

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