Current community forecast
No 74.3%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 26, 1:09 PM UTCJul 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?
Manifold MarketsLLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.
- Resolve to NO if this does not happen.
- [Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.]
- To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way.
- Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue.
- No strategic assistance.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? resolve?
- Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2027.
- How is Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.