Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastSpaceX 78.7%+4.4%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
58
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 5, 26, 2:50 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
SpaceX79%
Compare venues· SpaceX
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall89% match · auto | Medium | 86% | — | $4.7K | $906.1K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 79% | — | — | — | 8 hours ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
5mo
86%
26%
14%
+71 more outcomes
68 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$4.9M
24h Vol$4.7K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves YES to the company that has the largest market cap by the closing market cap value on IPO day in 2026.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k85.0%POLYMARKETYes0x122c…fbed24d ago
POLYMARKETYes0x122c…fbed24d ago$2.3k11.9%POLYMARKETYesObamnna24d ago
POLYMARKETYesObamnna24d agoVolume trend
$50Jul 157d of dataJul 26
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Resolves YES to the company that has the largest market cap by the closing market cap value on IPO day in 2026.