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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

0.8% (24h)AIOne-OffSpaceCorporate Actions1y
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
SpaceX
SpaceX 87%-0.0%
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$2K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

84.8% / 88.8%

Spread

4.7%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-0.8%

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jan 30, 26, 11:19 PMDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

SpaceX87%

Rules

This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
  • This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe.
  • This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
  • This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. - Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal. - Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
  • Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Related Markets

Manifold Markets

OpenAI highest valuation by end of June 2026

$169.5
≥$0.6T: 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Combined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX

$104.8
Under $3T: 1.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

$100
SpaceX: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

$86.2
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.: 72.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

$119.5K
June 30: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

$67.8K
1T+: 99%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,911.32+2.29%EthereumETH$1,660.14+1.62%SolanaSOL$65.41+2.47%DogecoinDOGE$0.0853+1.84%BNBBNB$602.11+2.74%XRPXRP$1.12+0.83%

Related News

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Rules

This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
  • This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe.
  • This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
  • This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. - Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal. - Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
  • Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.