Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 79.3%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 25, 6:39 PM UTCOct 10, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsMETR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the first 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, of Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 Thinking.
- If a model in the Kimi K3 family of models is evaluated by METR that is able to reason before providing an answer, like a reasoning model, but it doesn't contain "Thinking" in its name (like Kimi K2 Thinking did), this still counts as Kimi K3 Thinking for the purpose of this market.
- Kimi K3 Code, Kimi K3 Heavy, these all count if they are the first such model to be evaluated and reported on by METR.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Kimi K3 Thinking METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Kimi K3 Thinking METR 50% time horizon resolve?
- Kimi K3 Thinking METR 50% time horizon is scheduled to resolve on October 10, 2026.
- How is Kimi K3 Thinking METR 50% time horizon settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the first 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, of Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 Thinking.