Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 5, 25, 11:39 AM UTCJul 6, 27, 11:33 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?
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Manifold MarketsWill Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
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PolymarketHoltec Nuclear IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketSB Energy IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
The Indian securities regulator, SEBI, has temporarily banned Jane Street from accessing the local markets due to alleged market manipulation.
- This market will resolve as true if Jane Street is found to have been involved in market manipulation by the Indian authorities.
- It will also resolve as true if Jane Street arrives at a settlement paying more than $100M without acknowledging any wrongdoing.
- Some press coverage:
- https://www.ft.com/content/41c4789a-afa6-462c-a6ea-9704c2ba78a7
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-04/india-bars-jane-street-from-accessing-its-securities-market
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.4pt92%
- Yes+1.4pt8%
- Total Vol
- $21.7M
- 24h Vol
- $300.9K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027+9.0pt21.5%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+4.0pt20.6%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt20.6%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt87%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,+2.0pt80%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt87%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt84%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2M
KALSHIWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- Before Jan 1, 202895%
- Before Sep 1, 2027-1.0pt57%
- Before April 1, 2027+4.0pt50%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $381.5K
POLYMARKETHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 58-0.5pt10%
- Above 6010%
- Above 62-1.1pt9%
+5 more outcomes
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will data center power-cost standards become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Senate passes Clarity Act by which date?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+? resolve?
- Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+? is scheduled to resolve on July 6, 2027.
- How is Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Indian securities regulator, SEBI, has temporarily banned Jane Street from accessing the local markets due to alleged market manipulation.