Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingJul 5, 25, 11:39 AM UTCJul 6, 27, 11:33 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?
Manifold MarketsDid Jane Street do anything wrong in India?
Manifold MarketsWill Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnyone indicted for insider trading or market manipulation for 4/7/25 events?
Manifold MarketsWill Dec-26 Nasdaq-100 Index Futures settle above 29,100 on November 3 2026? (NQ) (Tech stocks) (Stock market) (CME) (Wall Street) (Equity market)?
ForecastExWill Dec-26 Nasdaq-100 Index Futures settle above 27,700 on November 3 2026? (NQ) (Tech stocks) (Stock market) (CME) (Wall Street) (Equity market)?
ForecastExRules
The Indian securities regulator, SEBI, has temporarily banned Jane Street from accessing the local markets due to alleged market manipulation.
- This market will resolve as true if Jane Street is found to have been involved in market manipulation by the Indian authorities.
- It will also resolve as true if Jane Street arrives at a settlement paying more than $100M without acknowledging any wrongdoing.
- Some press coverage:
- https://www.ft.com/content/41c4789a-afa6-462c-a6ea-9704c2ba78a7
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-04/india-bars-jane-street-from-accessing-its-securities-market
