Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastOther harms 100%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 26, 1:22 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.
- A commonly cited example are supposed "assassination markets" which could result in traders committing murder in order to win a bet.
- This is one way "the named outcome" could resolve.
- This market is a twin to this market on Insider Trading harms.
- The primary difference between the two is that Insider Trading denotes important figures involved with the resolution in some manner, trading in accordance.
- By contrast, Market Manipulation is done by random traders, who can be reasonably presumed at the time of market creation to have little to no relevant sway on the resolution.