Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 52.4%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJul 9, 25, 9:59 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:51 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
In July 2025, Indian stock market regulator SEBI banned Jane Street Capital in India for market manipulation of BANKNIFTY & NIFTY50 index options.
- This market will resolve to my subjective probability of Jane Street having done anything against the law that relates to the controversy referenced above.
- I will extend this market until I feel the time is right, which will almost certainly be after any relevant legal cases are over.
- I will not close the market ahead of schedule.
- Disclaimer: This is a very subjective market.
- Further, I am not terribly informed about finance.
