Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2028 83.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingMar 3, 24, 11:10 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
Manifold MarketsDid Jane Street do anything wrong in India?
Manifold MarketsJane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRules
Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.
- Right now, the best publicly accessible AI (GPT-4 or Gemini Ultra) is not very good at this.
- I tried running the February puzzle through both and GPT-4 gave a few definitions and then said it was complex (though it did correctly simulate it afterward, even though the problem asked for an exact answer), and Gemini Ultra wasn't even close.
- During which year will a publicly accessible AI be able to solve at least 6 of the 12 puzzles released during the year? (Resolves yes during each year this happens.
- Multiple years can resolve YES)
- Clarifications
Open markets
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%-1.0pt97%
- Above 2.65%+32.0pt94%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $117.2K
- 24h Vol
- $95.2K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.0pt69%
- Moonshot-6.0pt14%
- Z.ai+2.3pt6%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.0pt85.4%
- Moonshot-1.9pt9.7%
- Z.ai1.9%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+8.0pt81%
+7 more outcomes
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles??
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 84% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? resolve?
- When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.