Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast2028 83.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 3, 24, 11:10 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.
- Right now, the best publicly accessible AI (GPT-4 or Gemini Ultra) is not very good at this.
- I tried running the February puzzle through both and GPT-4 gave a few definitions and then said it was complex (though it did correctly simulate it afterward, even though the problem asked for an exact answer), and Gemini Ultra wasn't even close.
- During which year will a publicly accessible AI be able to solve at least 6 of the 12 puzzles released during the year? (Resolves yes during each year this happens.
- Multiple years can resolve YES)
- Clarifications