In which years will the CDC report more measles cases in the US than 2026?
Health & MedicineAIOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 51.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+9.9 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jun 1, 26, 4:44 PM UTCFeb 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- Each option (2027, 2028, 2029, 2030) in this market is independent and will resolve based on whether the final reported number of confirmed measles cases in the United States for that year exceeds the final reported count for the year 2026.
- YES: If the CDC’s finalized (or consolidated provisional) annual count of confirmed measles cases in the United States for the respective year is strictly greater than the final count for 2026.
- NO: If the count is equal to or less than the final count for 2026.
- Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the CDC's official Measles Cases and Outbreaks page.
- If the data is archived or the page structure changes, final annual tables from the CDC's National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) or the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) will be used.