Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.4%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 29, 26, 2:36 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In which years will the CDC report more measles cases in the US than 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the CDC report twice as many measles cases in 2026 as 2025?
Manifold MarketsMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in U.S. by September 30?
PolymarketWhat will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the total number of confirmed measles cases in the United States reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the calendar year 2027 is strictly greater than the total number reported for the calendar year 2026.
- If the 2027 count is less than or equal to the 2026 count, the market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth will be the CDC's official Measles Cases and Outbreaks page.
- If this page is unavailable or no longer updated, official numbers published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) or the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) will be used.
- Details and Edge Cases:
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026? resolve?
- Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria