In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?
One-OffAITechEntertainment1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74%
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 24, 1:06 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 12:59 PM UTC
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Will an AI/LLM/Set of ML Agents/Other Machine Learning amalgamation be able to generate the output of the ~200 man years of work a software company puts into a stable 1.0 piece of software including manual or technical documentation and a passing test suite ready for release.
- Will this output be able to come from a prompt like "Software that enables users to describe potential future world situations and news filters/triggers then map potential trades against those outcomes such that the portfolios can be modeled and ranked and the best trades executed against news triggers"
- Resolution Criteria: The capabilities above are publicly demonstrated by the close date.
- The ~200 years of man effort is subjective but I will tend towards generosity here, if the other criteria are met.
- The outcomes of providing running executables, a manual and passing tests will be judged by me, but should be verifiable by the release of the output by the demonstrating group by anyone for this to resolve yes.
- I will be reasonably generous on the prompt used but it should be for something similarly involved as I have described above.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt? resolve?
- In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will an AI/LLM/Set of ML Agents/Other Machine Learning amalgamation be able to generate the output of the ~200 man years of work a software company puts into a stable 1.0 piece of software including manual or technical documentation and a passing test suite ready for release.