In 2027, will Manifold poll show Minnesota shooting had greater immigration enforcement impact than Laken Riley?
US PoliticsOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 26, 2:43 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
At the end of 2026 I will make a poll (basically) identical to this: {https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/which-incident-do-you-believe-will}
- The market will resolve to Yes, No, or 50%, 50% being in case of a tie.
- I am open to changes to this model of resolution, but if a lot of people trade before a change, I will keep it how it is most likely.
- I am very interested!
- [link preview]