In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
AIOne-Off8mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.2%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingMay 25, 24, 4:22 AM UTCJul 2, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This question automatically resolves NO if the market for commercial AI forecasting, involving for-profit companies, does not exist or has less than $1B in revenue during 2026.
- Otherwise, resolves to whether the commercial AI forecasting service with the highest 2026 revenue publishes data showing a platform-wide Brier score below 0.1.