If the US does not enact binding pre-deployment evals before 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ by 2036?
One-OffAIRegulation9y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Sep 6, 26, 10:25 AM UTCJan 1, 36, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: the US does not enact binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolves N/A if it does.
- Question: Given the condition, resolves YES if before January 1, 2036, an AI-caused incident kills 1,000 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability).
- Otherwise NO.
- Twin of the regime-conditioned market; see that market's endogeneity note.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
