Current community forecast
Completely unspecified (US government confidently asserts aliens exist but provide no further information) 42.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
30
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 26, 7:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNASA confirms aliens before 2027?
Manifold MarketsConfirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Resolves to an option IF EITHER the Kalshi or Polymarket question on U.S. confirmation of aliens resolves YES in 2026.
- https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/kxaliens-27
- https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027
- NOTE: neither of these markets requires aliens to actually exist.
- They just require a cabinet member or federal agency to definitively state that aliens exist.
- If both resolve NO, then this resolves to N/A.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.6pt98%
- Google-0.4pt1%
- OpenAI-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $63.6K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes53%
- No47%
- Total Vol
- $35.1K
- 24h Vol
- $35K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+35.0pt72.1%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-13.0pt15.4%
- No solution by Dec 31, 2027-16.0pt10.6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 7-1.0pt89%
- Above 8-11.0pt30%
- Above 9-1.0pt9%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt54.4%
- SpaceX44.7%
- OpenAI-0.1pt1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards 2026: Who will perform
- Raye+55.0pt99%
- Yung Lean+22.0pt99%
- Any member of GENER8ION+73.0pt99%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+): Text Arena Debut?
- Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be??
- Manifold Markets prices Completely unspecified (US government confidently asserts aliens exist but provide no further information) at 43% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be? resolve?
- If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to an option IF EITHER the Kalshi or Polymarket question on U.S. confirmation of aliens resolves YES in 2026.