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No 68.2%
No 68.2%Forecasters
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LaggingAug 28, 24, 1:03 AM UTCJan 1, 01, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- This resolves YES if I can easily point to the single AGI that has an okay outcome, and NO otherwise.
