Current community forecast
More than 10x 36%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 12:30 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI inference compute crunch in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the market for AI inference chips be MUCH larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1
KalshiOpenRouter token usage week of October 26?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Primary metric: The year-over-year growth multiplier in global AI inference token usage (measured either as total annual tokens processed or average monthly/daily tokens processed) from the full year 2029 to the full year 2030.
- Answer options:
- the named outcome: Growth is less than a 2-fold increase (a multiplier of < 2.0x, i.e., < 100% growth).
- the named outcome: Growth is at least 2.0x but less than 5.0x.
- the named outcome: Growth is at least 5.0x but less than 10.0x.