Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 41 minutes ago
Sep 27, 26, 1:06 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, at some point during 2027, demand for frontier-scale AI inference materially exceeds available compute capacity at prevailing prices.
- Strong evidence means either (A) direct quantitative evidence of a shortfall or (B) multiple observable signs of compute scarcity.
- A. Direct quantitative evidence
- This criterion is met if Epoch AI or another credible analysis estimates that frontier inference demand is equal to or greater than available inference capacity, using reasonably comparable assumptions about model size, context length, and token generation speed.
- An Epoch-style estimate showing a demand/capacity ratio ≥1.0 for a frontier model under roughly 25k:1k or 128k:1k input token workloads, while maintaining about 35 output tokens/second per user, is sufficient.
- For context, Epoch estimated Q4 2025 global Blackwell capacity at roughly 20B output tok/s at 8k context, 6B at 25k, and 0.5B at 128k.
