Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYang-Mills & The Mass Gap 49.7%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-12.4 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 24, 7:28 PM UTCJan 1, 99, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
KalshiRules
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
- For each market : If the 1 million dollar prize pledged by the Clay Institute of Mathematics for the resolution of the associated problem is taken, then it resolves YES.
- (Typically : someone solves the problem and accepts the money)
- If it’s clearly consensual that it won’t be taken, then it esolves NO.
- (For example, if the Clay Institute of Mathematics ceases to exist and no money is saved to be awarded later, all remaining problems shall resolve NO ; if someone solves a problem, is awarded the money and refuses it, the corresponding question resolves NO.)
- If the money is awarded and redirected (like idk someone gets the prize and asks for it to be given to MIRI), this resolves YES.